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Tropical Storm BUD


ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17              
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006               
2100 UTC FRI JUL 14 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)
 
BUOY 50004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 202N 1305W 34  8   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 12 202N 1305W 50  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 12 202N 1305W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 204N 1331W 34  X   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 24 204N 1331W 50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 24 204N 1331W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 205N 1356W 34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 36 205N 1356W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 36 205N 1356W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 206N 1381W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 48 206N 1381W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 48 206N 1381W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 205N 1440W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)
 72 205N 1440W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 72 205N 1440W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 96 200N 1500W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 96 200N 1500W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 200N 1500W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 200N 1550W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
120 200N 1550W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 200N 1550W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     30     25      20      20      20      20      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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