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Hurricane BUD


ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12                   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006               
1500 UTC THU JUL 13 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100  
KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR.                                          
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 190N 1242W 34 94   3(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
 12 190N 1242W 50 75  10(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
 12 190N 1242W 64 34  17(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 
 24 201N 1270W 34  1  72(73)   9(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
 24 201N 1270W 50  X  38(38)   8(46)   1(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
 24 201N 1270W 64  X  14(14)   3(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
 36 210N 1298W 34  X   5( 5)  41(46)   6(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
 36 210N 1298W 50  X   1( 1)  13(14)   3(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 36 210N 1298W 64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 48 215N 1323W 34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)  13(21)   4(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 48 215N 1323W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 48 215N 1323W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 220N 1380W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 72 220N 1380W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 72 220N 1380W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 96 220N 1420W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 96 220N 1420W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 96 220N 1420W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 215N 1460W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
120 215N 1460W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
120 215N 1460W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     90     70      55      40      25      20      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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