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Hurricane BUD


ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9                   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006               
2100 UTC WED JUL 12 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90   
KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR.                                          
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 172N 1193W 34 92   5(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
 12 172N 1193W 50 70  12(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
 12 172N 1193W 64 36  16(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
 
 24 184N 1220W 34  1  72(73)  11(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
 24 184N 1220W 50  X  40(40)  11(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 24 184N 1220W 64  X  16(16)   6(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
 36 195N 1246W 34  X   6( 6)  48(54)   7(61)   1(62)   X(62)   X(62)
 36 195N 1246W 50  X   1( 1)  22(23)   4(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 36 195N 1246W 64  X   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
 48 201N 1267W 34  X   1( 1)  15(16)  18(34)   6(40)   X(40)   X(40)
 48 201N 1267W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   2(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 48 201N 1267W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 72 210N 1310W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   2(15)   1(16)
 72 210N 1310W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 72 210N 1310W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 210N 1350W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
 96 210N 1350W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 210N 1350W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 210N 1390W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
120 210N 1390W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
120 210N 1390W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     85     75      65      50      40      30      30
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC