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Hurricane BUD


ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8                   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006               
1500 UTC WED JUL 12 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85   
KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR.                                          
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA CLARION   34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 164N 1181W 34 96   2(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 12 164N 1181W 50 73  10(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 12 164N 1181W 64 37  17(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
 
 24 175N 1206W 34  5  78(83)   7(90)   1(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
 24 175N 1206W 50  X  45(45)  11(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
 24 175N 1206W 64  X  21(21)   6(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
 36 184N 1233W 34  X  11(11)  51(62)   8(70)   1(71)   X(71)   X(71)
 36 184N 1233W 50  X   2( 2)  23(25)   7(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 36 184N 1233W 64  X   X( X)   9( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
 48 193N 1256W 34  X   1( 1)  17(18)  24(42)   7(49)   1(50)   X(50)
 48 193N 1256W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   3(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 48 193N 1256W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 72 200N 1300W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   2(16)   X(16)
 72 200N 1300W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 72 200N 1300W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 200N 1335W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)
 96 200N 1335W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 200N 1335W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 195N 1370W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
120 195N 1370W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 195N 1370W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     90     80      70      60      40      30      30
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH                                                
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC