Tropical Storm BUD

ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4              
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006               
2100 UTC TUE JUL 11 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA CLARION   34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 149N 1143W 34 63  19(82)   1(83)   1(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
 12 149N 1143W 50 25  18(43)   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 12 149N 1143W 64  6   5(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
 24 155N 1160W 34  1  55(56)  16(72)   1(73)   1(74)   X(74)   X(74)
 24 155N 1160W 50  X  23(23)  12(35)   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 24 155N 1160W 64  X   8( 8)   5(13)   X(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
 36 160N 1179W 34  X   8( 8)  45(53)  14(67)   2(69)   X(69)   X(69)
 36 160N 1179W 50  X   1( 1)  19(20)  10(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 36 160N 1179W 64  X   X( X)   9( 9)   4(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
 48 166N 1202W 34  X   1( 1)  11(12)  35(47)  12(59)   1(60)   X(60)
 48 166N 1202W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)   7(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 48 166N 1202W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
 
 72 172N 1239W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  27(33)   5(38)   1(39)
 72 172N 1239W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 72 172N 1239W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 96 174N 1271W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   7(16)   1(17)
 96 174N 1271W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 96 174N 1271W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 172N 1306W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
120 172N 1306W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
120 172N 1306W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     60     65      70      75      65      45      30
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ROTH                                           
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN