ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 18...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006 ...CORRECTED TO ADD TRACK IN LAST SENTENCE... THIS EVENING'S SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL PATCH OF CONVECTION LINGERING APPROXIMATELY 40 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. VISIBLE ANIMATION REVEALS STABLE MARINE LAYER STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. BESIDES THE COOLER SSTS...A BIT OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR ALSO APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING BUD. BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW LEFT OVER 35 KT WINDS WITHIN THE NORTH QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT. INITIAL MOTION IS 280 AT 14 KT. BUD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN THE LOW LAYER FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFDL AND THE GFDN...INDICATE THAT BUD WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY DAY 4. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT WITH DISSIPATION AT THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. AS A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FEATURE...THE NOGAPS...GFS...AND CMC SUGGEST A TRACK JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UKMET DISSIPATES THE TROUGH BEFORE REACHING THE ISLANDS AND THE ECMWF AND GFDL INDICATE A TRACK SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 20.1N 130.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 20.2N 131.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 20.4N 134.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 16/1200Z 20.5N 136.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 17/0000Z 20.5N 139.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 18/0000Z 20.5N 145.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC