ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006 WITH THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF COLD SSTS...STABLE AIR AND MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR...BUD IS LIGHT ON DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DROP QUICKLY WITH CURRENT VALUES OF 45-55 KT AND DATA T-NUMBERS OF 30-35 KT. INTENSITY IS ANALYZED AT 40 KT. TROPICAL STORM BUD'S TRACK IS NOW CLOSER TO A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY AT ABOUT 12 KT. BUD SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC HIGH. THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE GFSI AND GFDI MODELS WHICH SHOW A GOOD REPRESENTATION OF THE WEAKENING CYCLONE. BUD SHOULD CONTINUE TO UNWIND AND LIKELY WILL DROP BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE SHORTLY. A REMNANT NON-CONVECTIVE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FIVE DAYS OR LESS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS AND GFDI. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 19.8N 128.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 20.2N 130.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 20.4N 133.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 16/0600Z 20.5N 135.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 16/1800Z 20.6N 138.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 17/1800Z 20.5N 144.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 18/1800Z 20.0N 150.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 19/1800Z 20.0N 155.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC