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Tropical Storm BUD


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006
 
WITH THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF COLD SSTS...STABLE AIR AND MODERATE
SOUTHERLY SHEAR...BUD IS LIGHT ON DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DROP QUICKLY WITH CURRENT VALUES OF 45-55 KT
AND DATA T-NUMBERS OF 30-35 KT. INTENSITY IS ANALYZED AT 40 KT.
TROPICAL STORM BUD'S TRACK IS NOW CLOSER TO A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY
AT ABOUT 12 KT.
 
BUD SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC HIGH. THE TRACK FORECAST
FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE GFSI AND GFDI MODELS WHICH SHOW A GOOD
REPRESENTATION OF THE WEAKENING CYCLONE. BUD SHOULD CONTINUE TO
UNWIND AND LIKELY WILL DROP BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE SHORTLY.  A
REMNANT NON-CONVECTIVE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FIVE
DAYS OR LESS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS AND GFDI.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/2100Z 19.8N 128.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 20.2N 130.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 20.4N 133.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 20.5N 135.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 20.6N 138.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     17/1800Z 20.5N 144.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     18/1800Z 20.0N 150.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     19/1800Z 20.0N 155.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC