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Hurricane BUD (Text)

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HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006
800 PM PDT THU JUL 13 2006
 
THIS EVENING'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION REVEALS A CONTINUED WEAKENING
TREND FOR BUD. THE EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED AND CORE CONVECTION
CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE
FROM 90 TO 102 KT WITH THE T NUMBERS AND ODT DROPPING TO 77 AND 67
KT RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY DECREASED TO 85 KT AS A
COMPROMISE. THE NCEP/MMAB DAILY HIGH RESOLUTION SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING
OVER A TONGUE OF COOLER WATER WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 20
TO 23 CELSIUS. COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A LESS FAVORABLE
AIR MASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT BUD...ULTIMATELY REDUCING THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE INTO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS BY THE 72 HOUR PERIOD.
A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT BUD WILL WEAKEN BELOW
DEPRESSION STRENGTH OR ACTUALLY DISSIPATE IN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS. 
 
INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KT. HURRICANE BUD IS
TRACKING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL SUGGEST A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. AFTERWORDS...BUD IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW TO MID-LAYER STEERING FLOW
AS A REMNANT LOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE...BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND IS BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0300Z 18.9N 124.6W    85 KT
 12HR VT     14/1200Z 19.6N 126.5W    65 KT
 24HR VT     15/0000Z 20.5N 129.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     15/1200Z 21.2N 131.6W    35 KT
 48HR VT     16/0000Z 21.6N 134.3W    30 KT
 72HR VT     17/0000Z 22.0N 139.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     18/0000Z 22.0N 144.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     19/0000Z 22.0N 149.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
 
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