ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 200 PM PDT THU JUL 13 2006 BUD CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH MOST OF THE COLD CLOUD TOPS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE...THOUGH A RAGGED EYE REMAINS VISIBLE. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE DOWN TO 90-102 KT. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 95 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE SOMEWHAT GENEROUS. A 1339Z QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND AT MOST 60 NMI FROM THE CENTER...SO THE WIND RADII ARE ADJUSTED INWARD. THE HURRICANE'S MOVEMENT CONTINUES ALONG A REGULAR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 15 KT. BUD IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AT 130 W IS ANTICIPATED TO FILL AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD...SO THE HURRICANE IS NOT LIKELY TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS...SOME OF THE GUIDANCE LOSES THE VORTEX AFTER A DAY OR TWO. THE REMAINING MODELS SUGGEST A BEND BACK TOWARD THE WEST AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER... THE FORECAST IS SOUTH OF CONSENSUS AS THE NOGAPS CONTRIBUTION IS DOWNPLAYED. THE NOGAPS APPEARS TO HAVE A LARGER THAN EXPECTED TROPICAL CYCLONE VORTEX FROM THREE TO FIVE DAYS ALLOWING IT TO BE PULLED TOO FAR TO THE NORTH. BUD'S INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE DROPPING QUICKLY AS IT PROGRESSES OVER COLDER WATERS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. BUD SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT NON-CONVECTIVE LOW IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 18.4N 123.3W 95 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 19.2N 125.4W 75 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 20.3N 128.3W 55 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 21.2N 131.1W 40 KT 48HR VT 15/1800Z 22.0N 133.8W 30 KT 72HR VT 16/1800Z 22.5N 139.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 17/1800Z 22.5N 144.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 18/1800Z 22.0N 148.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC