ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 800 AM PDT THU JUL 13 2006 BUD'S APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS BUT THE EYE STILL REMAINS DISTINCT IN THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN 102 AND 115 KT AT 12Z...THOUGH ODT WAS ABOUT 90 KT AND AMSU SUGGESTS WINDS AS LOW AS 82 KT. INTENSITY IS THUS DROPPED TO 100 KT. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KT. BUD IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. ALTHOUGH A BREAK IN THE RIDGE EXISTS AROUND 130-140 W...BUD IS NOT LIKELY TO BE DEEP ENOUGH IN TWO DAYS TO MAKE THE TURN TO THE NORTH. ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE GFS TRACKS BUD TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR 36 HOURS THEN TURNS IT TOWARD THE WEST AND EVEN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 120 HOURS. THE GFS TOO QUICKLY LOSES THE VORTEX AND PICKS UP ON A DIFFERENT DISTURBANCE AFTER 24 HOURS. THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH INCLUDES THE GFS. FOR INTENSITY...BUD SHOULD BEGIN A QUICK DECLINE SINCE IT IS CURRENTLY OVER 25C SSTS AND WILL DROP TO 22C WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ALSO INCREASE AS BUD MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SHIPS GUIDANCE PRIMARILY BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN WEAKENING...AS SUGGESTED BY THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND THE EXPERIMENTAL SHIPS-LGE MODEL. BUD IS PREDICTED TO DROP BELOW HURRICANE FORCE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND CONTINUE WEAKENING THEREAFTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 17.9N 122.0W 100 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 19.0N 124.2W 90 KT 24HR VT 14/1200Z 20.1N 127.0W 70 KT 36HR VT 15/0000Z 21.0N 129.8W 55 KT 48HR VT 15/1200Z 21.5N 132.3W 40 KT 72HR VT 16/1200Z 22.0N 138.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 17/1200Z 22.0N 142.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 18/1200Z 21.5N 146.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC