Hurricane BUD

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HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006
800 AM PDT THU JUL 13 2006
 
BUD'S APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND WITH
WARMING CLOUD TOPS BUT THE EYE STILL REMAINS DISTINCT IN THE
VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE
BETWEEN 102 AND 115 KT AT 12Z...THOUGH ODT WAS ABOUT 90 KT AND AMSU
SUGGESTS WINDS AS LOW AS 82 KT.  INTENSITY IS THUS DROPPED TO 100
KT.  THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 15 KT.

BUD IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. 
ALTHOUGH A BREAK IN THE RIDGE EXISTS AROUND 130-140 W...BUD IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE DEEP ENOUGH IN TWO DAYS TO MAKE THE TURN TO THE NORTH. 
ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE GFS TRACKS BUD TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR 36
HOURS THEN TURNS IT TOWARD THE WEST AND EVEN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
120 HOURS.  THE GFS TOO QUICKLY LOSES THE VORTEX AND PICKS UP ON A
DIFFERENT DISTURBANCE AFTER 24 HOURS.  THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH
INCLUDES THE GFS.  FOR INTENSITY...BUD SHOULD BEGIN A QUICK DECLINE
SINCE IT IS CURRENTLY OVER 25C SSTS AND WILL DROP TO 22C WITHIN
24-36 HOURS.  SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ALSO INCREASE AS
BUD MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SHIPS GUIDANCE PRIMARILY BUT IT IS
SOMEWHAT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN WEAKENING...AS SUGGESTED BY THE FSU
SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND THE EXPERIMENTAL SHIPS-LGE MODEL.  BUD IS
PREDICTED TO DROP BELOW HURRICANE FORCE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND
CONTINUE WEAKENING THEREAFTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/1500Z 17.9N 122.0W   100 KT
 12HR VT     14/0000Z 19.0N 124.2W    90 KT
 24HR VT     14/1200Z 20.1N 127.0W    70 KT
 36HR VT     15/0000Z 21.0N 129.8W    55 KT
 48HR VT     15/1200Z 21.5N 132.3W    40 KT
 72HR VT     16/1200Z 22.0N 138.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     17/1200Z 22.0N 142.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     18/1200Z 21.5N 146.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA
 
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