ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 800 PM PDT WED JUL 12 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT BUD HAS HAS AGAIN UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH THE EYE TEMPERATURE WARMING 30 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS TO MINUS 14 DEGREES CELSIUS. SATELLITE ANIMATION ALSO DEPICTS THAT THE EYE WALL HAS CLOSED OFF COMPLETELY OVER THE SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN MINUS 80 OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 115 KT FROM TAFB...AND 90 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. BASED ON THIS AND AN ODT OF 5.4 (99.6 KT) AT 00Z...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 100 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREFORE...A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST...FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KT. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM A HIGH SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER BUD ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. A BREAK IN THE RIDGE CREATED BY A STATIONARY MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N130W SHOULD INFLUENCE A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. BY DAY 4...A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER BUD IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD AS THE LOW FILLS AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...ALLOWING THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD IN NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE UKMET...NOGAPS...THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND THE GFDL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0300Z 17.1N 118.9W 100 KT 12HR VT 13/1200Z 18.0N 120.8W 90 KT 24HR VT 14/0000Z 19.1N 123.4W 80 KT 36HR VT 14/1200Z 20.1N 125.7W 65 KT 48HR VT 15/0000Z 20.7N 127.9W 50 KT 72HR VT 16/0000Z 21.0N 132.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 17/0000Z 21.0N 136.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 18/0000Z 21.0N 139.5W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC