Hurricane BUD

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HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006
800 PM PDT WED JUL 12 2006
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT BUD HAS HAS AGAIN UNDERGONE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION WITH THE EYE TEMPERATURE WARMING 30 DEGREES CELSIUS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS TO MINUS 14 DEGREES CELSIUS. SATELLITE
ANIMATION ALSO DEPICTS THAT THE EYE WALL HAS CLOSED OFF COMPLETELY
OVER THE SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN MINUS 80
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 115 KT FROM
TAFB...AND 90 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.  BASED ON THIS AND AN ODT OF
5.4 (99.6 KT) AT 00Z...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 100
KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND A
LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THEREFORE...A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST...FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND THE FSU
SUPER-ENSEMBLE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KT. A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM A HIGH SITUATED
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER BUD ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. A BREAK IN THE
RIDGE CREATED BY A STATIONARY MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N130W
SHOULD INFLUENCE A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE 24
HOUR PERIOD. BY DAY 4...A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER BUD IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WESTWARD AS THE LOW FILLS AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...ALLOWING
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD IN NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS A
CONSENSUS OF THE UKMET...NOGAPS...THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND THE
GFDL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0300Z 17.1N 118.9W   100 KT
 12HR VT     13/1200Z 18.0N 120.8W    90 KT
 24HR VT     14/0000Z 19.1N 123.4W    80 KT
 36HR VT     14/1200Z 20.1N 125.7W    65 KT
 48HR VT     15/0000Z 20.7N 127.9W    50 KT
 72HR VT     16/0000Z 21.0N 132.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     17/0000Z 21.0N 136.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     18/0000Z 21.0N 139.5W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
 
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