Hurricane BUD

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HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006
200 PM PDT WED JUL 12 2006

BUD HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN AN EYE FEATURE FOR THE PAST SIX HOURS
AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE REMAINED COLD.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES ARE
90 KT AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...AND OBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES FOR THE PAST SIX HOURS HAVE AVERAGED AROUND 90 KT. 
BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO
90 KT. THIS PEAK INTENSITY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AS THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS IN 12-24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH FIVE DAYS AND IS A BLEND OF SHIPS AND FSU
SUPER-ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.  A 14Z QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED SMALLER WIND
RADII AND THE IN ITAL AND FORECAST VALUES REFLECT THIS NEW WIND
FIELD DATA.    

THE INITIAL FORWARD SPEED...13 KT...IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE HEADING CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST.  STEERING CONDITIONS REMAIN THE SAME...A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE AND A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM EXISTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE HURRICANE BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.  SUBSEQUENTLY A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST WITH SOME SLOWING OF FORWARD
SPEED DUE TO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.  THE GFS MODEL HAS BEEN
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME INITIALIZING THE HURRICANE AND LOSES THE
SYSTEM IN 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ONCE AGAIN SLIGHTLY TO
THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE REMAINDER OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/2100Z 16.3N 117.5W    90 KT
 12HR VT     13/0600Z 17.2N 119.3W    85 KT
 24HR VT     13/1800Z 18.4N 122.0W    75 KT
 36HR VT     14/0600Z 19.5N 124.6W    65 KT
 48HR VT     14/1800Z 20.1N 126.7W    50 KT
 72HR VT     15/1800Z 21.0N 131.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     16/1800Z 21.0N 135.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     17/1800Z 21.0N 139.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
 
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