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Hurricane BUD


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006
800 AM PDT WED JUL 12 2006
 
SINCE ITS RAPID STRENGTHENING EPISODE YESTERDAY...BUD HAS BEEN
UNDERGOING SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY AS EVIDENCED BY THE
VARIABILITY OF THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES.  INFRARED IMAGERY OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS REVEALED AN OBSCURED EYE PATTERN WITH
THE HURRICANE.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT AND 77
KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. THIS...ALONG WITH THE
REDEVELOPED EYE PATTERN...JUSTIFIES RETAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY
AT 85 KT.  IF THE EYE BECOMES MORE DISTINCT AND PERSISTENT THE
INTENSITY WOULD BE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON.  IN 24
HOURS...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE OVER COOLER WATERS SO THE WINDOW
FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL SOON CLOSE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR WEAKENING THEREAFTER...HOWEVER IT IS MORE CONSERVATIVE
THEN BOTH THE GFDL AND THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
 
BUD CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 295/11. A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS FOUND
BETWEEN 125W AND 130W AS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THESE
STEERING INFLUENCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST WITH SOME
SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED DUE TO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE UKMET OFFICE TRACK. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/1500Z 15.7N 116.2W    85 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 16.4N 118.1W    90 KT
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 17.5N 120.6W    80 KT
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 18.4N 123.3W    70 KT
 48HR VT     14/1200Z 19.3N 125.6W    60 KT
 72HR VT     15/1200Z 20.0N 130.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     16/1200Z 20.0N 133.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     17/1200Z 19.5N 137.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC