ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 11 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS EVENING INDICATES THAT BUD HAS BEEN UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH AN EYE FEATURE FIRST PEAKING THROUGH THE CIRRUS CANOPY AROUND 2030 UTC AND THEN BECOMING CLEARLY DEFINED BY 2230 UTC. LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE AN IMPRESSIVE T4.5...77 KT...FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND T5.0...90 KT... FROM TAFB. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 80 KT IS A COMPROMISE OF THESE ESTIMATES BUT CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF THE SPECTRUM UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE WINDS ARE LAGGING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. WITH THE VERTICAL SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND THE SST SUFFICIENTLY HIGH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION TO CONTINUE THROUGH 24-36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...BUD IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO COOLER WATERS RESULTING IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT CALLS FOR SLOWER WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10...ESSENTIALLY RIGHT ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. GLOBAL MODELS OFFER SOME INTERESTING SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE GFS WHICH SHOWS BUD MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTERACTING WITH AN ITCZ DISTURBANCE TO ITS WEST...TO THE NOGAPS AND CANADIAN MODELS WHICH PLOW BUD RIGHT INTO THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING EAST/WEST ACROSS THE PACIFIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO PRODUCE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITH A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST BEGINNING BY 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTS ONLY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 14.6N 114.1W 80 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 15.2N 115.6W 90 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 16.0N 117.7W 100 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 16.8N 120.0W 100 KT 48HR VT 14/0000Z 17.3N 122.3W 95 KT 72HR VT 15/0000Z 17.5N 126.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 16/0000Z 17.5N 130.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 17/0000Z 17.5N 134.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC