Hurricane BUD

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HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 11 2006
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS EVENING INDICATES THAT BUD HAS BEEN
UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH AN EYE FEATURE FIRST PEAKING
THROUGH THE CIRRUS CANOPY AROUND 2030 UTC AND THEN BECOMING CLEARLY
DEFINED BY 2230 UTC. LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE AN
IMPRESSIVE T4.5...77 KT...FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND T5.0...90 KT...
FROM TAFB.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 80 KT IS A COMPROMISE OF THESE
ESTIMATES BUT CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF THE SPECTRUM UNDER THE
ASSUMPTION THAT THE WINDS ARE LAGGING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. 
WITH THE VERTICAL SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND THE SST SUFFICIENTLY
HIGH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION TO CONTINUE
THROUGH 24-36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...BUD IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
COOLER WATERS RESULTING IN GRADUAL WEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL
THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT CALLS FOR SLOWER WEAKENING THEREAFTER. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10...ESSENTIALLY RIGHT ON THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. GLOBAL MODELS OFFER SOME INTERESTING
SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE GFS WHICH SHOWS BUD MOVING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTERACTING WITH AN ITCZ DISTURBANCE TO ITS
WEST...TO THE NOGAPS AND CANADIAN MODELS WHICH PLOW BUD RIGHT INTO
THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING EAST/WEST ACROSS THE
PACIFIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO PRODUCE A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED WITH A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST BEGINNING BY 48 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTS ONLY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0300Z 14.6N 114.1W    80 KT
 12HR VT     12/1200Z 15.2N 115.6W    90 KT
 24HR VT     13/0000Z 16.0N 117.7W   100 KT
 36HR VT     13/1200Z 16.8N 120.0W   100 KT
 48HR VT     14/0000Z 17.3N 122.3W    95 KT
 72HR VT     15/0000Z 17.5N 126.0W    80 KT
 96HR VT     16/0000Z 17.5N 130.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     17/0000Z 17.5N 134.0W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART
 
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