ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 11 2006 A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS BACK AT 0145Z RETRIEVED A FEW 35-KT VECTORS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION... BUT I STILL SUSPECT THOSE WERE SLIGHTLY RAIN-INFLATED...AND 30 KT SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY AT THAT TIME. SINCE THEN THE DEPTH AND EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION HAVE INCREASED... AND THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE UP TO 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB. THOSE ESTIMATES DIFFER IN PART BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATITUDE OF THE CENTER LOCATION. BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE QUIKSCAT DIRECTIONAL AMBIGUITIES...AND RECENT PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM WINDSAT AND SSMI...I HAVE SETTLED ON A CENTER LOCATION IN BETWEEN THE GEOSTATIONARY FIXES. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION SINCE THE QUIKSCAT PASS... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY LEANS TOWARD THE HIGHER DVORAK ESTIMATE... AND THE SYSTEM IS NAMED TROPICAL STORM BUD WITH 35 KT MAXIMUM WINDS. THE ADVISORY POSITION REPRESENTS A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK OF ABOUT 45 N MI... AND THE FORWARD MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 295/7. SINCE THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE PACIFIC FROM MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF BUD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE DEPICTION OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM IN THE GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS IS COMPLICATED BY INTERACTIONS WITH TWO OTHER CIRCULATIONS...A RELATIVELY SMALL AND SHALLOW ONE ABOUT 500 N MI TO THE WEST IN THE ITCZ...AND THE LARGER AND DEEPER DISTURBANCE ABOUT 800 N MI TO THE EAST. SINCE THE CIRCULATION OF BUD HAS BECOME FAIRLY ROBUST...I TEND TO FAVOR THE MODELS THAT DEPICT IT WELL...IN PARTICULAR THE GFDL AND ECMWF...WHICH DO NOT SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION WITH EITHER OF THE OTHER CIRCULATIONS. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS A BIT NORTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... WHICH BRINGS BUD TO COOLER WATERS A LITTLE SOONER... IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST PEAKS AT 60 KT... IN BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS... FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 13.7N 111.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 14.2N 112.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 14.8N 113.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 15.2N 115.1W 50 KT 48HR VT 13/0600Z 15.8N 117.1W 55 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 17.0N 121.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 15/0600Z 17.5N 124.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 16/0600Z 17.5N 128.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC