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Tropical Storm BUD


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 11 2006
 
A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS BACK AT 0145Z RETRIEVED A FEW 35-KT VECTORS JUST
OUTSIDE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION... BUT I STILL SUSPECT THOSE WERE
SLIGHTLY RAIN-INFLATED...AND 30 KT SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE ESTIMATE
OF THE INTENSITY AT THAT TIME.  SINCE THEN THE DEPTH AND EXTENT OF
THE CONVECTION HAVE INCREASED... AND THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES
ARE UP TO 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB.  THOSE ESTIMATES
DIFFER IN PART BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATITUDE OF THE CENTER
LOCATION.  BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE QUIKSCAT DIRECTIONAL
AMBIGUITIES...AND RECENT PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM WINDSAT AND
SSMI...I HAVE SETTLED ON A CENTER LOCATION IN BETWEEN THE
GEOSTATIONARY FIXES.  GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION SINCE THE
QUIKSCAT PASS... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY LEANS TOWARD THE HIGHER
DVORAK ESTIMATE... AND THE SYSTEM IS NAMED TROPICAL STORM BUD WITH
35 KT MAXIMUM WINDS.  THE ADVISORY POSITION REPRESENTS A NORTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK OF ABOUT 45 N MI... AND THE
FORWARD MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 295/7.
 
SINCE THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE PACIFIC
FROM MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF
BUD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS
FORECAST.  HOWEVER...THE DEPICTION OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE
TROPICAL STORM IN THE GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS IS COMPLICATED BY
INTERACTIONS WITH TWO OTHER CIRCULATIONS...A RELATIVELY SMALL AND
SHALLOW ONE ABOUT 500 N MI TO THE WEST IN THE ITCZ...AND THE LARGER
AND DEEPER DISTURBANCE ABOUT 800 N MI TO THE EAST.  SINCE THE
CIRCULATION OF BUD HAS BECOME FAIRLY ROBUST...I TEND TO FAVOR THE
MODELS THAT DEPICT IT WELL...IN PARTICULAR THE GFDL AND
ECMWF...WHICH DO NOT SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION WITH EITHER OF
THE OTHER CIRCULATIONS.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS A BIT NORTH OF
AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... WHICH BRINGS BUD TO COOLER
WATERS A LITTLE SOONER... IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST PEAKS AT 60 KT... IN BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL
SOLUTIONS... FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0900Z 13.7N 111.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     11/1800Z 14.2N 112.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     12/0600Z 14.8N 113.7W    45 KT
 36HR VT     12/1800Z 15.2N 115.1W    50 KT
 48HR VT     13/0600Z 15.8N 117.1W    55 KT
 72HR VT     14/0600Z 17.0N 121.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     15/0600Z 17.5N 124.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     16/0600Z 17.5N 128.0W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC