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Tropical Storm ALETTA (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012006               
2100Z MON MAY 29 2006                                               
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
L CARDENAS     34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 159N 1028W 34 42  14(56)   2(58)   1(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
 12 159N 1028W 50  5   2( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 12 159N 1028W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 158N 1037W 34 12  24(36)   5(41)   2(43)   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 24 158N 1037W 50  1   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 24 158N 1037W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 158N 1047W 34  2  13(15)   9(24)   5(29)   2(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 36 158N 1047W 50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 36 158N 1047W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 156N 1057W 34  1   4( 5)   7(12)   8(20)   4(24)   1(25)   X(25)
 48 156N 1057W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 48 156N 1057W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 72 155N 1075W 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   6(13)   1(14)   1(15)
 72 155N 1075W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 72 155N 1075W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 155N 1090W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)
 96 155N 1090W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 96 155N 1090W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 155N 1110W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)
120 155N 1110W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 155N 1110W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     40      35      35      30      25      25
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN                                                
                                                                    
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC