ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 2100Z MON MAY 29 2006 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) ZIHUATANEJO 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 159N 1028W 34 42 14(56) 2(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) 12 159N 1028W 50 5 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 12 159N 1028W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 158N 1037W 34 12 24(36) 5(41) 2(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) 24 158N 1037W 50 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 24 158N 1037W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 158N 1047W 34 2 13(15) 9(24) 5(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) 36 158N 1047W 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 36 158N 1047W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 156N 1057W 34 1 4( 5) 7(12) 8(20) 4(24) 1(25) X(25) 48 156N 1057W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 48 156N 1057W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 72 155N 1075W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 1(14) 1(15) 72 155N 1075W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 72 155N 1075W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 96 155N 1090W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) 96 155N 1090W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 96 155N 1090W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 120 155N 1110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 120 155N 1110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 120 155N 1110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40 40 35 35 30 25 25 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC