Tropical Depression ALETTA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012006
800 AM PDT TUE MAY 30 2006
 
ALTHOUGH ALETTA CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION...THERE IS NO
APPRECIABLE ORGANIZATION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB ARE 25 AND 30 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1230Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT COULD BE A SHADE HIGH. HIGH CLOUDS
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALETTA ARE MOVING TOWARD THE CYCLONE AT
30-35 KT...INDICATIVE OF UNFAVORABLE SHEAR...AND GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THIS SHEAR IS ONLY GOING TO GET STRONGER OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. BECAUSE ALETTA WILL REMAIN OVER 28-29C WATER...IT IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO GENERATE INTERMITTENT CONVECTION. THE STRONG
SHEAR AND DRY ENVIRONMENT ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECAY
OF THE CIRCULATION.
 
EVEN WITH THE LATEST QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES IT IS DIFFICULT TO 
PINPOINT THE CENTER...WHICH MIGHT INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS
FADING FASTER THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/5. ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF A MID- TO LOWER-LEVEL RIDGE AND BE STEERED
GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE DIFFICULTY HOLDING ON TO A CENTER...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE MEDIUM BAM MODEL.
 
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/1500Z 16.0N 103.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     31/0000Z 15.9N 104.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     31/1200Z 15.6N 105.3W    25 KT
 36HR VT     01/0000Z 15.3N 106.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     01/1200Z 15.1N 107.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     02/1200Z 15.0N 109.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     03/1200Z 15.0N 111.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     04/1200Z 15.0N 114.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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