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Tropical Depression ALETTA


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012006
200 AM PDT TUE MAY 30 2006
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAD BEEN ABSENT FROM ALETTA FOR ABOUT EIGHT HOURS
UNTIL IT RESUMED AROUND 04Z THIS MORNING.  WHILE THE RECENT BURST HAS
PERSISTED FOR A FEW HOURS... THE CONVECTION IS NOT ALL THAT WELL
ORGANIZED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT BASED ON A
BLEND OF THE 06Z DVORAK ESTIMATES.  CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE PASSING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER... INDICATIVE OF
THE INCREASING SHEAR THAT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE WEAKENING OF THIS
SMALL CYCLONE SINCE YESTERDAY... AND THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAIRLY
STABLE AND DRY.  GIVEN HOW MUCH ALETTA HAS STRUGGLED AGAINST THESE
CONDITIONS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS... AND SINCE WESTERLY SHEAR IS
FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO ROUGHLY DOUBLE IN MAGNITUDE DURING
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS... RESTRENGTHENING DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY.  THE
NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW WITHIN ABOUT 36 HOURS... A BIT FASTER THAN INDICATED IN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT TO THE
SOUTH OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION FOR SEVERAL DAYS... ALTHOUGH THE LOW COULD LOSE ITS IDENTITY
SOONER THAN SHOWN IN THE FORECAST.
 
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0900Z 16.0N 102.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     30/1800Z 15.9N 103.3W    30 KT
 24HR VT     31/0600Z 15.8N 104.2W    25 KT
 36HR VT     31/1800Z 15.6N 105.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     01/0600Z 15.3N 106.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     02/0600Z 15.0N 107.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     03/0600Z 15.0N 109.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     04/0600Z 15.0N 111.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC