ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 800 PM PDT MON MAY 29 2006 ALETTA IS STRUGGLING FOR SURVIVAL. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS HIGHLY DISORGANIZED AND THERE IS LITTLE...IF ANY...DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE. AN AMSR-E IMAGE FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO SUGGESTED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS POORLY DEFINED. THE SYSTEM IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB...AS WELL AS THE CURRENTLY DISHEVELED APPEARANCE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A RATHER DRY MID-LEVEL AIR MASS...AND WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BEGIN INCREASING IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH THE CURRENT TREND...WOULD APPEAR TO MITIGATE AGAINST RE-STRENGTHENING. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ALETTA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE LATTER EVENT COULD OCCUR SOONER. INITIAL MOTION IS SLOWLY WESTWARD...270/3. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ALETTA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS REGIME SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0300Z 16.0N 102.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 30/1200Z 15.9N 102.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 31/0000Z 15.8N 103.7W 30 KT 36HR VT 31/1200Z 15.7N 104.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 01/0000Z 15.6N 105.6W 30 KT 72HR VT 02/0000Z 15.5N 107.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 03/0000Z 15.5N 109.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 04/0000Z 15.5N 111.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC