Tropical Depression ALETTA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012006
800 PM PDT MON MAY 29 2006
 
ALETTA IS STRUGGLING FOR SURVIVAL.  THE CLOUD PATTERN IS HIGHLY
DISORGANIZED AND THERE IS LITTLE...IF ANY...DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE.  AN AMSR-E IMAGE FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO
SUGGESTED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS POORLY DEFINED.  THE
SYSTEM IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION BASED ON A
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB...AS WELL AS THE
CURRENTLY DISHEVELED APPEARANCE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  ALETTA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A RATHER DRY MID-LEVEL AIR MASS...AND WESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BEGIN INCREASING IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.
THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH THE CURRENT TREND...WOULD APPEAR TO
MITIGATE AGAINST RE-STRENGTHENING.  NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ALETTA IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS.  NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE LATTER
EVENT COULD OCCUR SOONER.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS SLOWLY WESTWARD...270/3.  GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A
WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ALETTA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS REGIME SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD
MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0300Z 16.0N 102.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     30/1200Z 15.9N 102.8W    30 KT
 24HR VT     31/0000Z 15.8N 103.7W    30 KT
 36HR VT     31/1200Z 15.7N 104.5W    30 KT
 48HR VT     01/0000Z 15.6N 105.6W    30 KT
 72HR VT     02/0000Z 15.5N 107.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     03/0000Z 15.5N 109.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     04/0000Z 15.5N 111.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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