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Hurricane ISAAC


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18                 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092006               
0300 UTC MON OCT 02 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
38.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   9( 9)   9(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  1  76(77)   3(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X  18(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  2  42(44)   1(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 425N  572W 34 96   1(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
 12 425N  572W 50 41  10(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 12 425N  572W 64 11   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
 24 478N  535W 34  X  70(70)   5(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
 24 478N  535W 50  X  17(17)   7(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 24 478N  535W 64  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 36 515N  493W 34  X   3( 3)  47(50)   9(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
 36 515N  493W 50  X   X( X)  11(11)   6(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 36 515N  493W 64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 48 533N  455W 34  X   X( X)  14(14)  32(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
 48 533N  455W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 48 533N  455W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     60     50      45      45       0       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 02-Oct-2006 02:50:02 UTC