Hurricane ISAAC

ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13                 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092006               
2100 UTC SAT SEP 30 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  32(33)   X(33)   X(33)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  37(51)   X(51)   X(51)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)   X(17)   X(17)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)  22(41)   X(41)   X(41)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   X(12)   X(12)
ILE ST PIERRE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  12(21)   X(21)   X(21)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)   X(11)   X(11)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   3(14)   X(14)   X(14)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  28(32)   3(35)   X(35)   X(35)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BERMUDA        34  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 326N  603W 34 98   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 326N  603W 50 84   7(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
 12 326N  603W 64 54  10(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
 
 24 350N  608W 34 14  74(88)   6(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
 24 350N  608W 50  2  58(60)  10(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
 24 350N  608W 64  X  30(30)   8(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 
 36 390N  600W 34  X   8( 8)  67(75)   8(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 36 390N  600W 50  X   1( 1)  37(38)   9(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
 36 390N  600W 64  X   X( X)  16(16)   2(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
 48 440N  568W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  50(53)   9(62)   X(62)   X(62)
 48 440N  568W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)   6(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 48 440N  568W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
 
 72 520N  460W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  28(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 72 520N  460W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 72 520N  460W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     75     75      70      60      45       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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