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Tropical Storm ISAAC


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092006               
0900 UTC SAT SEP 30 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  37(37)   X(37)   X(37)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   X(13)   X(13)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  39(39)   X(39)   X(39)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   X(14)   X(14)
ILE ST PIERRE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  29(29)   X(29)   X(29)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)   X(21)   X(21)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
PTX BASQUES    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)   X(17)   X(17)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)   X(22)   X(22)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
SYDNEY NS      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  32(36)   X(36)   X(36)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   X(11)   X(11)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  1   4( 5)   5(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 309N  590W 34 94   4(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 12 309N  590W 50 62  13(75)   1(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
 12 309N  590W 64 27   8(35)   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 
 24 323N  604W 34 14  69(83)   9(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
 24 323N  604W 50  2  46(48)  11(59)   1(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)
 24 323N  604W 64  1  23(24)   8(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 
 36 347N  610W 34  2  19(21)  54(75)   7(82)   1(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 36 347N  610W 50  X   2( 2)  36(38)   8(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
 36 347N  610W 64  X   1( 1)  17(18)   4(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
 48 390N  602W 34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  45(52)  10(62)   X(62)   X(62)
 48 390N  602W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)   8(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 48 390N  602W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
 
 72 475N  545W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  37(37)   X(37)   X(37)
 72 475N  545W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 72 475N  545W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     65     70      70      60      50       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Saturday, 30-Sep-2006 08:35:01 UTC