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Tropical Storm ISAAC


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092006               
2100 UTC FRI SEP 29 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  24(27)   X(27)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  25(38)   X(38)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   X(14)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)  16(33)   X(33)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   X(11)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  12(24)   X(24)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   8(17)   X(17)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   4(16)   X(16)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   7(19)   X(19)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  24(24)   6(30)   X(30)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   6(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 301N  578W 34 91   5(96)   1(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
 12 301N  578W 50 52  18(70)   1(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
 12 301N  578W 64  6   6(12)   X(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
 24 311N  591W 34 39  42(81)   8(89)   1(90)   1(91)   X(91)   X(91)
 24 311N  591W 50  6  40(46)  12(58)   1(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
 24 311N  591W 64  X  11(11)   6(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
 36 325N  603W 34  5  35(40)  33(73)   9(82)   1(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 36 325N  603W 50  X  10(10)  29(39)   9(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 36 325N  603W 64  X   2( 2)  11(13)   4(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
 48 347N  610W 34  1   7( 8)  27(35)  25(60)  10(70)   X(70)   X(70)
 48 347N  610W 50  X   X( X)   9( 9)  18(27)   7(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 48 347N  610W 64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
 
 72 435N  570W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  35(35)  10(45)   X(45)
 72 435N  570W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   3(15)   X(15)
 72 435N  570W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 96 500N  480W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  25(26)   X(26)
 96 500N  480W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)
 96 500N  480W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     55     60      65      60      55      50       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 29-Sep-2006 20:35:01 UTC