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Tropical Storm ISAAC (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092006               
0300 UTC FRI SEP 29 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  15(24)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)   9(26)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)   7(23)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   7(17)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   5(14)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   2(13)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   4(15)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  15(20)   2(22)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 300N  560W 34 83   6(89)   1(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
 12 300N  560W 50  7   7(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 12 300N  560W 64  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 24 309N  573W 34 28  40(68)   8(76)   3(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
 24 309N  573W 50  1  15(16)   8(24)   1(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 24 309N  573W 64  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 36 319N  585W 34  4  34(38)  25(63)   6(69)   3(72)   X(72)   X(72)
 36 319N  585W 50  X   4( 4)  16(20)   6(26)   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 36 319N  585W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
 48 335N  596W 34  1   8( 9)  26(35)  17(52)   9(61)   X(61)   X(61)
 48 335N  596W 50  X   X( X)   5( 5)  12(17)   5(22)   1(23)   X(23)
 48 335N  596W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
 
 72 380N  595W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  31(38)   9(47)   X(47)
 72 380N  595W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   3(15)   X(15)
 72 380N  595W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
 
 96 440N  535W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  24(26)   8(34)
 96 440N  535W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   3(12)
 96 440N  535W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
 
120 490N  460W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  14(19)
120 490N  460W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
120 490N  460W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     45      50      50      50      50      50
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Friday, 29-Sep-2006 02:55:01 UTC