Hurricane HELENE

ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  40                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006               
0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
32.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 350N  530W 34 99   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 350N  530W 50 84   7(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
 12 350N  530W 64 48   9(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
 
 24 376N  485W 34  4  84(88)   5(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
 24 376N  485W 50  X  50(50)  11(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
 24 376N  485W 64  X  19(19)   5(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
 36 403N  430W 34  X   3( 3)  68(71)   9(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
 36 403N  430W 50  X   X( X)  33(33)   9(42)   1(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 36 403N  430W 64  X   X( X)   9( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
 48 430N  376W 34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  48(53)  12(65)   1(66)   X(66)
 48 430N  376W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)   7(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 48 430N  376W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
 
 72 470N  300W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  41(43)  10(53)   1(54)
 72 470N  300W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)   5(21)   X(21)
 72 470N  300W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)
 
 
 96 515N  220W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  28(33)   7(40)
 96 515N  220W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   4(17)
 96 515N  220W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 
 
120 580N  150W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  17(23)
120 580N  150W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
120 580N  150W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     75     70      65      60      60      60      55
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
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