Hurricane HELENE

ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  39                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006               
0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 336N  548W 34 99   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 336N  548W 50 84   7(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
 12 336N  548W 64 49  11(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)
 
 24 363N  512W 34  8  83(91)   5(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
 24 363N  512W 50  X  57(57)  12(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
 24 363N  512W 64  X  27(27)   6(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 
 36 389N  459W 34  X   4( 4)  71(75)   9(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
 36 389N  459W 50  X   X( X)  39(39)   9(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 36 389N  459W 64  X   X( X)  14(14)   5(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
 48 417N  400W 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  54(58)  11(69)   X(69)   X(69)
 48 417N  400W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)  25(25)   6(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 48 417N  400W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
 
 72 470N  300W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  41(41)  10(51)   1(52)
 72 470N  300W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   5(19)   1(20)
 72 470N  300W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)
 
 
 96 515N  230W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  28(34)   7(41)
 96 515N  230W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   3(17)
 96 515N  230W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
 
 
120 580N  170W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  17(23)
120 580N  170W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
120 580N  170W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     75     75      70      65      60      60      55
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
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