| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Hurricane HELENE (Text)

ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  38                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006               
2100 UTC THU SEP 21 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
30.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 327N  559W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 327N  559W 50 80   8(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 12 327N  559W 64 41   9(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
 
 24 354N  532W 34 20  69(89)   5(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
 24 354N  532W 50  X  54(54)  10(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
 24 354N  532W 64  X  22(22)   8(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
 36 379N  491W 34  X  10(10)  66(76)   8(84)   1(85)   X(85)   X(85)
 36 379N  491W 50  X   X( X)  39(39)   8(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
 36 379N  491W 64  X   X( X)  15(15)   5(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
 48 407N  437W 34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  53(58)  12(70)   X(70)   X(70)
 48 407N  437W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)  25(25)   7(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 48 407N  437W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
 
 72 465N  325W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  40(40)  11(51)   X(51)
 72 465N  325W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   5(19)   X(19)
 72 465N  325W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)
 
 
 96 520N  230W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  30(32)   7(39)
 96 520N  230W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   4(16)
 96 520N  230W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 
 
120 580N  180W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  17(25)
120 580N  180W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
120 580N  180W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     70     70      70      65      60      60      55
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA                                                   
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN