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Hurricane HELENE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  28                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006               
0900 UTC TUE SEP 19 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR.                                      
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 246N  534W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 246N  534W 50 95   3(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 12 246N  534W 64 78   9(87)   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 
 24 251N  550W 34 77  19(96)   2(98)   X(98)   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 24 251N  550W 50 25  51(76)   8(84)   3(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
 24 251N  550W 64  5  46(51)  12(63)   2(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
 
 36 264N  563W 34 16  47(63)  25(88)   5(93)   2(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 36 264N  563W 50  1  21(22)  38(60)  10(70)   4(74)   X(74)   X(74)
 36 264N  563W 64  X   5( 5)  32(37)  10(47)   2(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 
 48 283N  571W 34  2  11(13)  37(50)  26(76)  11(87)   1(88)   X(88)
 48 283N  571W 50  X   1( 1)  18(19)  28(47)  13(60)   X(60)   X(60)
 48 283N  571W 64  X   X( X)   7( 7)  20(27)  11(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 
 
 72 336N  561W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  50(57)  13(70)   1(71)
 72 336N  561W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  30(31)   8(39)   2(41)
 72 336N  561W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   5(22)   1(23)
 
 
 96 380N  520W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  33(44)  11(55)
 96 380N  520W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  18(21)   5(26)
 96 380N  520W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   3(13)
 
 
120 420N  450W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  20(30)
120 420N  450W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)
120 420N  450W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND    105    110     110     110     100      90      80
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 19-Sep-2006 08:50:01 UTC