Hurricane HELENE
ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
2100 UTC SUN SEP 17 2006
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 220N 503W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 220N 503W 50 86 6(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
12 220N 503W 64 60 14(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) 1(76) X(76)
24 228N 515W 34 72 21(93) 3(96) 1(97) X(97) 1(98) X(98)
24 228N 515W 50 17 49(66) 8(74) 3(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78)
24 228N 515W 64 5 38(43) 10(53) 2(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56)
36 231N 530W 34 11 50(61) 20(81) 6(87) 3(90) 1(91) X(91)
36 231N 530W 50 1 23(24) 29(53) 8(61) 3(64) 2(66) X(66)
36 231N 530W 64 X 9( 9) 23(32) 8(40) 2(42) 1(43) X(43)
48 235N 550W 34 2 10(12) 33(45) 23(68) 10(78) 2(80) X(80)
48 235N 550W 50 X 1( 1) 17(18) 20(38) 9(47) 3(50) X(50)
48 235N 550W 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) 6(28) 2(30) X(30)
72 245N 575W 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 21(30) 26(56) 9(65) 2(67)
72 245N 575W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 18(28) 6(34) 2(36)
72 245N 575W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 4(18) 1(19)
96 271N 595W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 20(44) 7(51)
96 271N 595W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 11(18) 4(22)
96 271N 595W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12)
120 305N 610W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 12(31)
120 305N 610W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13)
120 305N 610W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 95 100 100 95 90 85 80
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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