Hurricane HELENE

ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006               
2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 200N  474W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 200N  474W 50 68  12(80)   1(81)   X(81)   1(82)   X(82)   X(82)
 12 200N  474W 64 30  18(48)   2(50)   X(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 
 24 209N  487W 34 60  30(90)   5(95)   1(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
 24 209N  487W 50  6  49(55)   8(63)   1(64)   2(66)   1(67)   X(67)
 24 209N  487W 64  1  29(30)  11(41)   1(42)   1(43)   1(44)   X(44)
 
 36 218N  498W 34 11  48(59)  20(79)   6(85)   4(89)   X(89)   1(90)
 36 218N  498W 50  1  16(17)  28(45)   8(53)   3(56)   1(57)   X(57)
 36 218N  498W 64  X   6( 6)  19(25)   6(31)   3(34)   1(35)   X(35)
 
 48 226N  510W 34  3  20(23)  31(54)  16(70)   9(79)   1(80)   1(81)
 48 226N  510W 50  X   3( 3)  19(22)  14(36)   9(45)   1(46)   1(47)
 48 226N  510W 64  X   1( 1)   9(10)  10(20)   6(26)   1(27)   X(27)
 
 
 72 240N  535W 34  X   1( 1)  10(11)  17(28)  25(53)   8(61)   2(63)
 72 240N  535W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)  18(26)   6(32)   1(33)
 72 240N  535W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   3(16)   1(17)
 
 
 96 260N  560W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  21(25)  17(42)   7(49)
 96 260N  560W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  11(18)   2(20)
 96 260N  560W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)
 
 
120 290N  575W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  15(21)  10(31)
120 290N  575W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   6(13)
120 290N  575W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     70     80      85      85      85      80      75
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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