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Tropical Storm HELENE (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006               
0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 188N  461W 34 95   2(97)   1(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 12 188N  461W 50 47  18(65)   1(66)   X(66)   X(66)   1(67)   X(67)
 12 188N  461W 64 17  10(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)   1(29)   X(29)
 
 24 197N  476W 34 36  47(83)   7(90)   1(91)   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)
 24 197N  476W 50  2  42(44)  11(55)   1(56)   2(58)   X(58)   X(58)
 24 197N  476W 64  X  21(21)   9(30)   1(31)   1(32)   X(32)   1(33)
 
 36 206N  491W 34  3  39(42)  29(71)   8(79)   5(84)   1(85)   X(85)
 36 206N  491W 50  X   9( 9)  28(37)   8(45)   4(49)   2(51)   X(51)
 36 206N  491W 64  X   3( 3)  17(20)   5(25)   3(28)   1(29)   X(29)
 
 48 214N  504W 34  1  11(12)  34(46)  18(64)  11(75)   1(76)   1(77)
 48 214N  504W 50  X   1( 1)  16(17)  16(33)   9(42)   2(44)   1(45)
 48 214N  504W 64  X   X( X)   6( 6)  11(17)   6(23)   1(24)   1(25)
 
 
 72 230N  530W 34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  17(24)  29(53)   9(62)   2(64)
 72 230N  530W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  19(26)   7(33)   1(34)
 72 230N  530W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   5(18)   1(19)
 
 
 96 250N  560W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  19(21)  20(41)  10(51)
 96 250N  560W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  12(19)   5(24)
 96 250N  560W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   3(12)
 
 
120 280N  580W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  16(21)  13(34)
120 280N  580W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   8(15)
120 280N  580W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     65     75      80      85      95      95      90
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Saturday, 16-Sep-2006 09:00:02 UTC