ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 0300 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 179N 451W 34 94 3(97) X(97) X(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) 12 179N 451W 50 46 16(62) 1(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) 12 179N 451W 64 16 8(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 24 189N 467W 34 27 54(81) 6(87) 3(90) X(90) X(90) 1(91) 24 189N 467W 50 2 37(39) 11(50) 2(52) 1(53) 1(54) X(54) 24 189N 467W 64 X 17(17) 7(24) 2(26) 1(27) X(27) 1(28) 36 198N 481W 34 3 37(40) 29(69) 9(78) 5(83) 1(84) X(84) 36 198N 481W 50 X 8( 8) 26(34) 9(43) 4(47) 2(49) X(49) 36 198N 481W 64 X 3( 3) 14(17) 6(23) 3(26) 1(27) 1(28) 48 207N 494W 34 1 10(11) 31(42) 21(63) 11(74) 2(76) 1(77) 48 207N 494W 50 X 1( 1) 13(14) 18(32) 9(41) 3(44) X(44) 48 207N 494W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 7(22) 1(23) 1(24) 72 224N 518W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 18(25) 30(55) 8(63) 2(65) 72 224N 518W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 20(28) 6(34) 2(36) 72 224N 518W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 5(19) 1(20) 96 240N 546W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 18(44) 8(52) 96 240N 546W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 13(22) 4(26) 96 240N 546W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 3(14) 120 260N 570W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) 11(36) 120 260N 570W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 6(16) 120 260N 570W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65 70 75 90 100 100 95 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 16-Sep-2006 02:45:01 UTC