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Tropical Storm HELENE (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006               
0300 UTC SAT SEP 16 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 179N  451W 34 94   3(97)   X(97)   X(97)   1(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 12 179N  451W 50 46  16(62)   1(63)   1(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
 12 179N  451W 64 16   8(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
 24 189N  467W 34 27  54(81)   6(87)   3(90)   X(90)   X(90)   1(91)
 24 189N  467W 50  2  37(39)  11(50)   2(52)   1(53)   1(54)   X(54)
 24 189N  467W 64  X  17(17)   7(24)   2(26)   1(27)   X(27)   1(28)
 
 36 198N  481W 34  3  37(40)  29(69)   9(78)   5(83)   1(84)   X(84)
 36 198N  481W 50  X   8( 8)  26(34)   9(43)   4(47)   2(49)   X(49)
 36 198N  481W 64  X   3( 3)  14(17)   6(23)   3(26)   1(27)   1(28)
 
 48 207N  494W 34  1  10(11)  31(42)  21(63)  11(74)   2(76)   1(77)
 48 207N  494W 50  X   1( 1)  13(14)  18(32)   9(41)   3(44)   X(44)
 48 207N  494W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)   7(22)   1(23)   1(24)
 
 
 72 224N  518W 34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)  18(25)  30(55)   8(63)   2(65)
 72 224N  518W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  20(28)   6(34)   2(36)
 72 224N  518W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   5(19)   1(20)
 
 
 96 240N  546W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  23(26)  18(44)   8(52)
 96 240N  546W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  13(22)   4(26)
 96 240N  546W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   3(14)
 
 
120 260N  570W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  18(25)  11(36)
120 260N  570W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   6(16)
120 260N  570W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     65     70      75      90     100     100      95
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Saturday, 16-Sep-2006 02:45:01 UTC