| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Tropical Storm HELENE (Text)

ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006               
2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 177N  445W 34 96   1(97)   1(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 12 177N  445W 50 51  17(68)   2(70)   X(70)   X(70)   1(71)   X(71)
 12 177N  445W 64 24  12(36)   1(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
 
 24 186N  460W 34 40  44(84)   7(91)   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)   1(93)
 24 186N  460W 50  3  43(46)  11(57)   2(59)   1(60)   X(60)   X(60)
 24 186N  460W 64  1  22(23)   9(32)   2(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
 36 195N  475W 34  4  37(41)  31(72)   9(81)   4(85)   1(86)   X(86)
 36 195N  475W 50  X   9( 9)  30(39)   9(48)   4(52)   2(54)   X(54)
 36 195N  475W 64  X   3( 3)  19(22)   7(29)   2(31)   2(33)   X(33)
 
 48 205N  490W 34  1   9(10)  31(41)  24(65)  10(75)   3(78)   1(79)
 48 205N  490W 50  X   1( 1)  13(14)  20(34)  10(44)   2(46)   1(47)
 48 205N  490W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)  15(19)   7(26)   X(26)   1(27)
 
 
 72 220N  510W 34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)  22(31)  25(56)   9(65)   1(66)
 72 220N  510W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  19(29)   6(35)   2(37)
 72 220N  510W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)   5(20)   1(21)
 
 
 96 240N  540W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  17(21)  21(42)   8(50)
 96 240N  540W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  13(21)   4(25)
 96 240N  540W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   2(12)
 
 
120 260N  565W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  18(24)  11(35)
120 260N  565W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   7(16)
120 260N  565W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     70     75      85      95     100      95      90
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN