| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Tropical Storm HELENE (Text)

ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006               
1500 UTC THU SEP 14 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 138N  391W 34 68   9(77)   X(77)   X(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)
 12 138N  391W 50  9   3(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 12 138N  391W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 148N  420W 34  2  63(65)  10(75)   1(76)   1(77)   X(77)   X(77)
 24 148N  420W 50  X  19(19)  11(30)   1(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 24 148N  420W 64  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
 36 162N  441W 34  X  15(15)  45(60)  11(71)   3(74)   1(75)   X(75)
 36 162N  441W 50  X   1( 1)  24(25)   9(34)   2(36)   1(37)   X(37)
 36 162N  441W 64  X   X( X)   7( 7)   6(13)   1(14)   1(15)   X(15)
 
 48 175N  460W 34  X   1( 1)  24(25)  28(53)  13(66)   1(67)   1(68)
 48 175N  460W 50  X   X( X)   5( 5)  19(24)  10(34)   1(35)   1(36)
 48 175N  460W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   5(15)   1(16)   1(17)
 
 
 72 195N  490W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)  32(46)   9(55)   3(58)
 72 195N  490W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  17(21)   6(27)   2(29)
 72 195N  490W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   4(14)   2(16)
 
 
 96 215N  510W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  22(24)  17(41)   8(49)
 96 215N  510W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  10(18)   4(22)
 96 215N  510W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)
 
 
120 245N  530W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  14(19)  13(32)
120 245N  530W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   8(14)
120 245N  530W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     45     55      65      75      85      90      90
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER COBB/BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN