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Tropical Depression EIGHT


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3       
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006               
0300 UTC WED SEP 13 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 121N  278W 34 21   8(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 12 121N  278W 50  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 12 121N  278W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 124N  313W 34  X  27(27)  10(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 24 124N  313W 50  X   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 24 124N  313W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 129N  348W 34  X   1( 1)  29(30)   9(39)   2(41)   X(41)   X(41)
 36 129N  348W 50  X   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 36 129N  348W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 48 138N  380W 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  23(27)  11(38)   1(39)   1(40)
 48 138N  380W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 48 138N  380W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
 
 72 163N  430W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  26(27)  10(37)   3(40)
 72 163N  430W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   5(14)   1(15)
 72 163N  430W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
 
 96 190N  470W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  20(26)   9(35)
 96 190N  470W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   4(14)
 96 190N  470W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
 
120 215N  500W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)  13(25)
120 215N  500W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)
120 215N  500W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     40      45      50      60      75      90
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 13-Sep-2006 02:55:01 UTC