Hurricane HELENE

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HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006
0300 UTC SUN SEP 17 2006
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  47.5W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE 180SW 225NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  47.5W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N  47.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.2N  48.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  35SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.2N  49.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  35SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 135NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.1N  50.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.9N  52.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.1N  55.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 26.0N  57.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 29.0N  58.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N  47.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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