Hurricane GORDON

ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006               
1500 UTC WED SEP 13 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 274N  574W 34 97   1(98)   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 274N  574W 50 80   8(88)   1(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
 12 274N  574W 64 55  13(68)   1(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
 
 24 292N  566W 34 20  68(88)   6(94)   X(94)   X(94)   1(95)   X(95)
 24 292N  566W 50  3  58(61)   9(70)   1(71)   1(72)   X(72)   X(72)
 24 292N  566W 64  1  35(36)  11(47)   1(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 
 36 308N  555W 34  2  37(39)  37(76)   7(83)   4(87)   X(87)   X(87)
 36 308N  555W 50  X  10(10)  37(47)   8(55)   3(58)   1(59)   X(59)
 36 308N  555W 64  X   3( 3)  23(26)   6(32)   1(33)   1(34)   X(34)
 
 48 321N  545W 34  X   8( 8)  40(48)  19(67)   8(75)   2(77)   1(78)
 48 321N  545W 50  X   1( 1)  19(20)  17(37)   6(43)   2(45)   X(45)
 48 321N  545W 64  X   X( X)   7( 7)  12(19)   4(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
 
 72 340N  525W 34  X   X( X)   9( 9)  21(30)  24(54)   6(60)   2(62)
 72 340N  525W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  16(25)   4(29)   1(30)
 72 340N  525W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   3(14)   X(14)
 
 
 96 365N  500W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  18(22)  15(37)   4(41)
 96 365N  500W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   8(15)   2(17)
 96 365N  500W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 
 
120 400N  440W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  10(19)
120 400N  440W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
120 400N  440W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     90     90      85      80      70      60      50
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN