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Tropical Storm GORDON


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006               
2100 UTC TUE SEP 12 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 246N  585W 34 92   4(96)   X(96)   1(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
 12 246N  585W 50 53  14(67)   1(68)   1(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
 12 246N  585W 64 18  10(28)   2(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
 24 260N  585W 34 21  56(77)   8(85)   2(87)   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 24 260N  585W 50  4  39(43)  11(54)   2(56)   X(56)   1(57)   X(57)
 24 260N  585W 64  1  23(24)   9(33)   1(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
 36 277N  585W 34  1  28(29)  38(67)  10(77)   4(81)   X(81)   1(82)
 36 277N  585W 50  X   8( 8)  29(37)   8(45)   4(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 36 277N  585W 64  X   3( 3)  20(23)   6(29)   2(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
 48 295N  580W 34  X   4( 4)  31(35)  26(61)  13(74)   1(75)   X(75)
 48 295N  580W 50  X   X( X)  11(11)  20(31)   9(40)   1(41)   X(41)
 48 295N  580W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)   5(21)   1(22)   X(22)
 
 
 72 330N  560W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)  36(49)  10(59)   1(60)
 72 330N  560W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  18(21)   6(27)   1(28)
 72 330N  560W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   3(15)   1(16)
 
 
 96 365N  520W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  23(35)   6(41)
 96 365N  520W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   3(16)
 96 365N  520W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
 
120 400N  460W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  13(22)
120 400N  460W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
120 400N  460W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     65     75      80      80      75      65      55
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER COBB/PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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