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Tropical Storm GORDON


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006               
0300 UTC TUE SEP 12 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   7(15)   2(17)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 230N  587W 34 56  19(75)   1(76)   1(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)
 12 230N  587W 50 36  18(54)   2(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
 12 230N  587W 64  5   5(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
 24 245N  595W 34  3  58(61)  13(74)   4(78)   1(79)   X(79)   X(79)
 24 245N  595W 50  1  38(39)  12(51)   2(53)   1(54)   X(54)   X(54)
 24 245N  595W 64  X  13(13)   9(22)   1(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
 36 260N  600W 34  X  20(20)  40(60)  10(70)   6(76)   1(77)   X(77)
 36 260N  600W 50  X   7( 7)  30(37)   8(45)   3(48)   1(49)   X(49)
 36 260N  600W 64  X   2( 2)  16(18)   6(24)   2(26)   1(27)   X(27)
 
 48 276N  600W 34  X   3( 3)  30(33)  24(57)  11(68)   3(71)   X(71)
 48 276N  600W 50  X   X( X)  12(12)  18(30)   8(38)   2(40)   X(40)
 48 276N  600W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)   5(20)   1(21)   X(21)
 
 
 72 300N  595W 34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  18(24)  27(51)   8(59)   2(61)
 72 300N  595W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  16(24)   6(30)   2(32)
 72 300N  595W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   3(15)   X(15)
 
 
 96 330N  575W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  17(20)  19(39)   8(47)
 96 330N  575W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  11(17)   3(20)
 96 330N  575W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)
 
 
120 370N  520W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  15(24)
120 370N  520W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
120 370N  520W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     55     65      75      75      75      70      65
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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