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Tropical Depression SEVEN


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3       
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006               
1500 UTC MON SEP 11 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   9(22)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 214N  575W 34 36  12(48)   2(50)   1(51)   1(52)   X(52)   X(52)
 12 214N  575W 50  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 12 214N  575W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 223N  586W 34  7  27(34)  10(44)   2(46)   2(48)   1(49)   X(49)
 24 223N  586W 50  X   5( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 24 223N  586W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 233N  596W 34  1  11(12)  23(35)   7(42)   5(47)   2(49)   X(49)
 36 233N  596W 50  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   2(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 36 233N  596W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 48 243N  606W 34  X   3( 3)  16(19)  15(34)   9(43)   3(46)   1(47)
 48 243N  606W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   5(13)   1(14)   1(15)
 48 243N  606W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 72 265N  620W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)  21(34)   8(42)   2(44)
 72 265N  620W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   3(13)   2(15)
 72 265N  620W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
 
 96 290N  624W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)  12(30)   5(35)
 96 290N  624W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   3(12)
 96 290N  624W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
 
120 320N  615W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)   8(24)
120 320N  615W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)
120 320N  615W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     35      40      45      50      55      55
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 14:35:01 UTC