Hurricane GORDON

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HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006
 
THERE IS ONLY A HINT OF AN EYE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT THE CLOUD
PATTERN REMAINS VERY WELL ORGANIZED FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT SUCH
HIGH LATITUDE...AND IT IS STILL DETACHED FROM ANY FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE WEAKENING TREND HAS ALREADY BEGUN AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 75 KNOTS. SINCE GORDON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM...IT SHOULD BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT
24 HOURS. ALL PHASE DIAGRAMS FROM FSU SUGGEST THAT GORDON SHOULD
BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL SOON. HOWEVER...IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST THE PRECISE TIMING OF THIS OCCURRENCE. THE BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT GORDON IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AZORES AS A HURRICANE.
 
GORDON IS ALREADY EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AND IS MOVING EASTWARD
OR 090 DEGREES AT 27 KNOTS. THIS FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST SO
GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING GORDON ACROSS THE
AZORES TODAY AND NEAR NORTHWESTERN SPAIN ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. BY THEN...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE ALREADY
ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER FRONTAL SYSTEM.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/1500Z 38.0N  35.4W    75 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 38.1N  30.1W    65 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 39.0N  22.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 41.0N  14.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     21/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
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FORECASTER AVILA
 
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