Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane GORDON


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
500 PM EDT MON SEP 18 2006
 
GORDON IS STUBBORNLY MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY WITH A WELL-DEFINED
EYE AND A NEARLY COMPLETE COLD CLOUD RING.  SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AND THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS LIKEWISE KEPT AT 80 KT.  GORDON IS QUICKLY PROGRESSING
OVER COOLER WATERS AND WILL BE OVER 24 C SSTS TOMORROW...THOUGH THE
DESTABILIZING EFFECTS OF COOLING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES
MAY SOMEWHAT COUNTERACT THE REDUCTION IN SSTS.  VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...ANALYZED BY CIMSS AT ABOUT 20 KT...SHOULD BECOME STRONGER
UNDER AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT.  AS SUGGESTED IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...GORDON SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING SHORTLY.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST...WHILE THE SYSTEM IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IS A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
 
GORDON IS MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...75 DEGREES AT 19 KT...WHICH
IS FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  GORDON SHOULD
TRACK TO THE EAST FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS UNDER THE ZONAL FLOW
PRODUCED BY THE COMBINATION OF A DEEP TROUGH TO ITS NORTH AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH.  IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...GORDON IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT QUICKLY
ACCELERATES AND IS ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. 
HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE NOGAPS AND
UKMET...SUGGEST INSTEAD THAT GORDON WILL RETAIN ITS OWN IDENTITY AS
AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM LONGER THAN INDICATED HERE.  THE TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...MINUS THE NOGAPS...WHICH
APPEARS TO HAVE TOO LARGE A VORTEX CARRIED FORWARD IN TIME.
 
ANALYSES FROM THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS SUGGEST THAT ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS TRANSITION GORDON TO A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  DUE TO THE RATHER RESILIENT NATURE OF
GORDON...HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION MAY BE DELAYED SLIGHTLY. 
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE SYSTEM WOULD PASS VERY NEAR OR OVER THE
AZORES IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.  BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
OF THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED
FOR THE AZORES.  HOWEVER...REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT STRUCTURE OF THE
CYCLONE...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE EXPERIENCED IN THE AZORES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/2100Z 37.8N  44.8W    80 KT
 12HR VT     19/0600Z 38.3N  40.8W    70 KT
 24HR VT     19/1800Z 38.5N  34.2W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     20/0600Z 39.2N  26.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     20/1800Z 41.3N  17.9W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 18-Sep-2006 20:45:01 UTC