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Hurricane GORDON


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006

THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF GORDON ONCE AGAIN REMAINS UNCHANGED
FROM EARLIER TODAY.  AN EYE FEATURE...DEEP CONVECTION...AND WELL-
ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW ARE ALL PRESENT.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT...AND DATA T-NUMBERS ARE 65 KT FROM 
BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT
AT 70 KT.  

GORDON HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW
ESTIMATED AT 020/12.  IT APPEARS THAT THE ANTICIPATED DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH TO THE WEST OF GORDON...AND A RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED TO
THE SOUTHEAST HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO STEER GORDON TO THE NORTHEAST. 
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE GORDON TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST..AND GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT TWO DAYS NEAR THE AZORES.  BY DAY 3...MOSTLY
ALL THE GUIDANCE MERGES THE CYCLONE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM...AS DOES
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  

THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN GORDON AS A
HURRICANE THROUGH 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SLOWLY WEAKENS
GORDON UNTIL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURS. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/2100Z 34.6N  52.4W    70 KT
 12HR VT     18/0600Z 36.3N  50.7W    65 KT
 24HR VT     18/1800Z 38.0N  46.2W    65 KT
 36HR VT     19/0600Z 39.0N  40.0W    60 KT
 48HR VT     19/1800Z 39.7N  32.0W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Sunday, 17-Sep-2006 20:40:01 UTC