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Hurricane GORDON


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006
 
GORDON REFUSES TO WEAKEN.  SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE HURRICANE
WITH AN EYE FEATURE...DEEP CONVECTION...AND IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 77 KT...AND
AFWA WAS 65 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED UP TO 70 KT...
SINCE BOTH THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND OVERALL APPEARANCE ARE
SLIGHTLY IMPROVED.  SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT OR TWO SINCE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM BOTH SHIPS AND
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MAINTAIN GORDON AS A HURRICANE THROUGH 36 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED UNTIL EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BEGINS IN ABOUT TWO DAYS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO BE 010/9...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
BEFORE. THIS NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE
DEEP- LAYER TROUGH QUICKLY APPROACHES.  THE FORECAST REASONING
REMAINS THE SAME AS BEFORE...AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS WELL
CLUSTERED.  A SLIGHT ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST IN 24 HOURS IS
EXPECTED...WITH A FASTER MOTION TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS THE
CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
 
MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT GORDON SHOULD BEGIN TO
OBTAIN EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY 48 HOURS...AND BECOME
MERGED WITH A FRONT IN 96 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/1500Z 33.6N  53.2W    70 KT
 12HR VT     18/0000Z 35.2N  51.6W    65 KT
 24HR VT     18/1200Z 36.9N  48.4W    65 KT
 36HR VT     19/0000Z 38.6N  43.5W    60 KT
 48HR VT     19/1200Z 39.5N  37.2W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     20/1200Z 40.0N  22.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     21/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Sunday, 17-Sep-2006 14:40:02 UTC